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Trump Visits Gulf Arab States 05/12 07:24
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- On his trip this week to the Middle
East, U.S. President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates, though his most pressing regional challenges concern two other
countries: Israel and Iran.
After ending a ceasefire two months ago, Israel is intensifying the war in
the Gaza Strip, where a blockade on food, medicine and other supplies is
worsening a humanitarian crisis. And Iran, an enemy of Israel and a rival of
Saudi Arabia, stands on the cusp of being able to develop nuclear weapons.
Yet Trump will focus his attention on three energy-rich nations home to
existing or planned Trump-branded real estate projects -- places where he aims
to leverage American economic interests to do what he personally revels in:
making business deals.
"This is his happy place," said Jon B. Alterman, a senior vice president at
the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "His hosts
will be generous and hospitable. They'll be keen to make deals. They'll flatter
him and not criticize him. And they'll treat his family members as past and
future business partners."
But Trump won't be able to avoid altogether diplomacy on Gaza or Iran: The
Gulf countries hosting him are also interested in easing the regional tensions
that emanate from these two places.
"Trump can easily score a win by reassuring them of America's strategic
commitment to the region, demonstrating consistent messaging and generally
rising above the fray," analysts Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson of the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote Friday.
Trump doesn't plan to visit Israel
By not scheduling a trip to Israel during his first trip to the region
during his second term as president, Trump is reinforcing a feeling in Israel
that its interests may not be top of mind for him.
That sense intensified last week, when Trump announced that the U.S. would
halt its strikes on the Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen that
agreed to stop its attacks on American vessels in the Red Sea.
The Houthis' attacks on Israel did not appear to be covered by that deal,
which came as a surprise to Israel, according to an Israeli official who spoke
on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic issue. Days after
the deal between the U.S. and the Houthis -- and despite a two-day Israeli
assault on Houthi targets -- a missile from Yemen again set off air raid sirens
in Israel. Then Israel's military warned Sunday that Houthi-controlled ports in
Yemen could be targeted again.
Trump's move to launch negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program also
jarred Israel, which fears a deal that would not be strict enough to prevent
Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or rein in its support for regional
militant groups.
Israel had hoped that Trump might provide military assistance in any strike
it carried out on the country's nuclear facilities -- an action that is
unrealistic so long as there are negotiations, or if they reach a deal.
That has raised questions in Israel over Trump's reliability on other major
issues, like a long-sought normalization deal with Saudi Arabia as part of any
defense pact the administration may reach with the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has
said it would only normalize ties with Israel in exchange for significant
concessions for the Palestinians toward statehood, something the current
Israeli government is unlikely to agree to.
Israel has said it will hold off on expanding the war in Gaza until after
Trump's visit, leaving the window open for a new ceasefire deal to materialize.
And while Hamas and Trump announced that the last living American hostage in
Gaza, Edan Alexander, will be freed as part of efforts to establish a
ceasefire, it is not clear what involvement Israel had in that deal.
Still, Trump has given Israel free rein in Gaza and, like Israel, blames
Hamas for any civilian casualties.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee played down any significance to
Trump's decision not to visit the country, saying in interviews with Israeli
media that his visit to the region was focused on economic issues.
No major breakthrough in Iran nuclear talks
For Iran, much depends on the talks it is having with the U.S. over its
rapidly advancing nuclear program. A reported two-month deadline to reach a
deal likely has passed as U.S. officials signal America may push for Iran to
give up enrichment entirely -- something Tehran has insisted is a red line.
Although four rounds of talks mediated by Oman have not led to a major
breakthrough, they have gone into the so-called "expert level" -- meaning
specifics about any possible accord likely have been discussed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled over the weekend to both
Saudi Arabia and Qatar ahead of Trump's trip. Iran likely is trying to pass
messages to the U.S. while signaling its interest in continuing the talks.
Iranian officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon, while Trump
and Israel have both threatened to strike Iranian nuclear sites if a deal isn't
reached.
The Islamic Republic is running out of options. Its economy has cratered
since Trump in 2018 unilaterally pulled America out of their initial nuclear
deal with world powers. And Iran's self-described "Axis of Resistance" -- a
group of aligned nations and militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza and
Hezbollah in Lebanon -- has been mauled since the Israel-Hamas war began.
Iran also faces internal political pressure, including from women
increasingly refusing to wear the state-mandated headscarf, or hijab.
There is one thing that unites most Iranians, however --- pride over the
Persian Gulf. Trump's consideration of having America uniformly call the body
of water the "Arabian Gulf" instead drew fierce criticism from across the
country.
"This gulf has always been the Persian Gulf -- and it will forever remain
the Persian Gulf," Tehran's Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said.
Trump's 2017 trip still haunts the Gulf
After starting his trip in Saudi Arabia, Trump will then go to Qatar, which
recently announced plans for a Trump-branded development there.
This tight embrace of the president comes after his first trip to the Middle
East -- in 2017 -- apparently sparked what became known as the Qatar crisis.
That is when Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE boycotted Qatar over its
support of Islamists in the region and its ties to Iran, with which it shares a
massive offshore natural gas field.
The dispute grew so serious that Kuwait's ruling emir at the time, Sheikh
Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah, suggested on a visit to the White House there could
have been "military action."
Trump initially criticized Qatar as having "historically been a funder of
terrorism at a very high level" at the start of the boycott. Less than a year
later, he praised Qatar and rolled that back. The four nations ended their
boycott just before Biden took office.
Then on Sunday, President Donald Trump said he was ready to accept a luxury
Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet as a gift from the ruling family of Qatar during his
trip to the Middle East. U.S. officials say it could be converted into a
potential presidential aircraft -- which would amount to the president
accepting an astonishingly valuable gift from a foreign government
With crude oil prices trading just over $60 a barrel -- lows not seen since
2021 -- one major criticism Trump has for the Gulf states isn't there. The
question is how Trump will deal with the region's multitude of crises and
still-tender wounds.
To avoid a repeat of the 2017 diplomatic crisis, Trump "should reemphasize
efforts to unite the Gulf" said Dent and Henderson, of the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy.
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