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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/20 10:52
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Lower at Midday Thursday
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are
5 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are
5 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. stock market
is firmer at midday with the S&P 45 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 10
points lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is firmer
with crude .40 higher and natural gas is .04 higher. Livestock trade has cattle
sharply lower, and hogs firmer. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 14.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with light early buying fading
again during the day session with little fresh news overall. Ethanol margins
should get some support from corn fading with blender margins likely seeing a
little improvement ahead of holiday travel. Export data is starting to be
caught up with nothing on the daily wire Thursday for cor. Weekly export sales
were 2.26 million metric tons (mmt) for the week ended Oct. 2 as we catch up
data. Basis should continue to stabilize and firm in most areas with the
well-above-normal fall shipment and usage pace. On the December chart,
resistance is the 20-day moving average at $4.32, which we closed just below,
with the recent low at $4.26 as further support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower with early gains fading as early
product strength eased and export announcements are likely built into the
market for now. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower as
trade sorts out potential changes to biofuels incentives regarding imports.
South American weather continues to keep overall concerns limited with some dry
pockets in Brazil which look to expand a little in the short term. Basis should
continue to firm seasonally with crush strength needing to buy time for export
shipments to ramp up further. The daily export wire confirmed 462,000 metric
tons sold to China with more confirmations needed to meet the stated targets.
The delayed weekly export report showed 919,400 metric tons of soybeans sold;
328,300 of new crop meal; and -11,800 of oil. On the January chart, resistance
is the $11.69 1/2 area where we find the fresh high from Wednesday with the
20-day moving average well below the market at $11.22.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower with Chicago action holding up the best
with the firmer dollar and negative row-crop spillover keeping the pressure on
the market. Weather should remain mostly favorable for the Plains in the short
term with cooler weather expected into the end of the month to push us toward
dormancy. MATIF wheat is weaker Thursday morning. The delayed export report
showed 887,900 metric tons sold and the daily wire showed 132,000 metric tons
of white wheat to China. On the KC December chart, resistance is the 20-day
moving average at $5.22, which we closed just below, with the support at the
lower Bollinger Band at $5.06.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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