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DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/30 10:48
Soybean Futures Higher at Midday Thursday; Corn, Wheat Lower
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 12 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 12 cents lower. The U.S. stock
market is mixed at midday with the S&P off 22. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30
points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is firmer
with crude up .10 and natural gas is .08 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with
cattle turning back higher after early weakness. Precious metals are firmer
with gold up 13.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with spread action continuing
to firm as we hold the upper end of the range with spillover support from
soybeans returning but little fresh corn specific news to drive action. Ethanol
margins should remain stable as corn and unleaded hold sideways trends. Harvest
pace should pick back up after the early week moisture. Fresh export sales are
expected to remain active given the recent shipping pace along with trade
optimism. Basis should start moving toward post-harvest levels into the
beginning of November. On the December chart, support is the 20-day moving
average at $4.19 with the summer gap filled at $4.33; the next round up is the
recent high at $4.37, which we scored overnight.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with a 45-cent range
overnight with big swings as trade details emerged with China committing to
buying 25 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans per year over the next three
years, which is roughly in line with prior years with 12 mmt of catch-up sales
this year. Meal is 4.50 to 5.50 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower.
Harvest on remaining acres should pick back up toward the end of the week.
South American weather looks to be a nonissue short term with Brazil to
continue to see good weather for early development. Basis should start to firm
if a trade deal delivers a more-normal fall export pace from here. On the
January chart, resistance is the $11.14 1/2 area, where we find the fresh high,
with the Upper Bollinger Band at $11.01, which we have stayed above here.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 3 to 12 cents lower at midday as we consolidate the upper
end of the range after the recent bounce with spillover from the row crops
easing a bit along with the firmer dollar providing a headwind. Weather should
remain mostly favorable for the Plains short term with a trend toward a little
more seasonal weather on deck with drier weather in the Southern Plains as
emergence wraps up. MATIF wheat was a bit softer Thursday morning. Southern
Hemisphere wheat remains in good shape as harvest continues. On the KC December
chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $4.96, that we have held solidly
above this week, with the next round up the fall high at $5.25, which we tested
again Thursday morning.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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